A synthesis of evidence for policy from behavioural science during COVID-19.

Scientific evidence regularly guides policy decisions1, with behavioural science increasingly part of this process2. In April 2020, an influential paper3 proposed 19 policy recommendations ('claims') detailing how evidence from behavioural science could contribute to efforts to reduce impacts and end the COVID-19 pandemic. Here we assess 747 pandemic-related research articles that empirically investigated those claims. We report the scale of evidence and whether evidence supports them to indicate applicability for policymaking. Two independent teams, involving 72 reviewers, found evidence for 18 of 19 claims, with both teams finding evidence supporting 16 (89%) of those 18 claims. The strongest evidence supported claims that anticipated culture, polarization and misinformation would be associated with policy effectiveness. Claims suggesting trusted leaders and positive social norms increased adherence to behavioural interventions also had strong empirical support, as did appealing to social consensus or bipartisan agreement. Targeted language in messaging yielded mixed effects and there were no effects for highlighting individual benefits or protecting others. No available evidence existed to assess any distinct differences in effects between using the terms 'physical distancing' and 'social distancing'. Analysis of 463 papers containing data showed generally large samples; 418 involved human participants with a mean of 16,848 (median of 1,699). That statistical power underscored improved suitability of behavioural science research for informing policy decisions. Furthermore, by implementing a standardized approach to evidence selection and synthesis, we amplify broader implications for advancing scientific evidence in policy formulation and prioritization.

Digital measurement of SARS-CoV-2 transmission risk from 7 million contacts.

How likely is it to become infected by SARS-CoV-2 after being exposed? Almost everyone wondered about this question during the COVID-19 pandemic. Contact-tracing apps1,2 recorded measurements of proximity3 and duration between nearby smartphones. Contacts-individuals exposed to confirmed cases-were notified according to public health policies such as the 2 m, 15 min guideline4,5, despite limited evidence supporting this threshold. Here we analysed 7 million contacts notified by the National Health Service COVID-19 app6,7 in England and Wales to infer how app measurements translated to actual transmissions. Empirical metrics and statistical modelling showed a strong relation between app-computed risk scores and actual transmission probability. Longer exposures at greater distances had risk similar to that of shorter exposures at closer distances. The probability of transmission confirmed by a reported positive test increased initially linearly with duration of exposure (1.1% per hour) and continued increasing over several days. Whereas most exposures were short (median 0.7 h, interquartile range 0.4-1.6), transmissions typically resulted from exposures lasting between 1 h and several days (median 6 h, interquartile range 1.4-28). Households accounted for about 6% of contacts but 40% of transmissions. With sufficient preparation, privacy-preserving yet precise analyses of risk that would inform public health measures, based on digital contact tracing, could be performed within weeks of the emergence of a new pathogen.

Historical narratives about the COVID-19 pandemic are motivationally biased.

How people recall the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic is likely to prove crucial in future societal debates on pandemic preparedness and appropriate political action. Beyond simple forgetting, previous research suggests that recall may be distorted by strong motivations and anchoring perceptions on the current situation1-6. Here, using 4 studies across 11 countries (total n = 10,776), we show that recall of perceived risk, trust in institutions and protective behaviours depended strongly on current evaluations. Although both vaccinated and unvaccinated individuals were affected by this bias, people who identified strongly with their vaccination status-whether vaccinated or unvaccinated-tended to exhibit greater and, notably, opposite distortions of recall. Biased recall was not reduced by providing information about common recall errors or small monetary incentives for accurate recall, but was partially reduced by high incentives. Thus, it seems that motivation and identity influence the direction in which the recall of the past is distorted. Biased recall was further related to the evaluation of past political action and future behavioural intent, including adhering to regulations during a future pandemic or punishing politicians and scientists. Together, the findings indicate that historical narratives about the COVID-19 pandemic are motivationally biased, sustain societal polarization and affect preparation for future pandemics. Consequently, future measures must look beyond immediate public-health implications to the longer-term consequences for societal cohesion and trust.

Impacto de la dependencia funcional de los pacientes mayores atendidos en los servicios de Urgencias españoles durante la primera ola pandémica de la COVID-19 sobre la mortalidad a 30, 180 y 365 días en función del diagnóstico (COVID versus no COVID) / Impact of functional dependency of elderly patients seen in Spanish emergency departments during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic on mortality at 30, 180 and 365 days depending on the diagnosis (COVID versus non-COVID)

Fundamentos: La valoración funcional forma parte de la valoración geriátrica. No se conoce bien cómo se realiza en los servicios de Urgencias hospitalarios (SUH) y menos aún su valor pronóstico. El objetivo de este trabajo fue investigar si la dependencia funcional basal para realizar las actividades básicas de la vida diaria (ABVD) era un factor pronóstico independiente de muerte tras la visita índice al SUH durante la primera ola pandémica de laCOVID-19 y si tuvo un impacto diferente en pacientes con y sin diagnóstico de COVID-19. Métodos: Se realizó un estudio observacional retrospectivo de la cohorte EDEN-Covid (Emergency Department and Elder Needs during COVID) formada por todos los pacientes de edad mayor o igual a 65 años atendidos en 52 SUH españoles, seleccionados por oportunidad durante siete días consecutivos (del 30 de marzo al 5 de abril de 2020). Se analizaron variables demográficas, clínicas, funcionales, mentales y sociales. La dependencia se categorizó con el índice de Barthel (IB) en independiente (IB=100), dependencia leve-moderada (100>IB>60) y dependencia grave-total (IB<60), y se evaluó su asociación cruda y ajustada con la mortalidad a 30, 180 y 365 días mediante modelos de riesgos proporcionales de COX.Resultados: De 9.770 pacientes incluidos con una media de edad de 79 años, un 51% eran hombres, 6.305 (64,53%) eran independientes, 2.340 (24%) tenían dependencia leve-moderada y 1.125 (11,5%) dependencia grave-total. El número de fallecidos a 30 días en estos tres grupos fue 500 (7,9%), 521 (22,3%) y 378 (33,6%), respectivamente; a 180 días fue 757 (12%), 725 (30,9%) y 526 (46,8%); y a 365 días 954 (15,1%), 891 (38,1%) y 611 (54,3%). En relación a los pacientesindependientes, los riesgos (hazard ratio) ajustados de fallecer a 30 días, asociados a dependencia leve-moderada y grave-total, fueron 1,91 (IC 95%: 1,66-2,19)

Background: Functional assessment is part of geriatric assessment. How it is performed in hospital Emergency Departments (ED) is poorly understood, let alone its prognostic value. The aim of this paper was to investigate whether baseline disability to perform basic activities of daily living (BADL) was an independent prognostic factor for death after the index visit to the ED during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic and whether it had a different impact on patients with and without diagnosis of COVID-19. Methods: A retrospective observational study of the EDEN-Covid (Emergency Department and Elder Needs during COVID) cohort was carried out, consisting of all patients aged ≥65 years seen in 52 Spanish EDs selected by chance during 7 consecutive days (30/3/2020 to 5/4/2020). Demographic, clinical, functional, mental and social variables were analyzed. Dependence was categorized with the Barthel index (BI) as independent (BI=100), mild-moderate dependence (100>BI>60) and severe-total dependence (BI<60), and their crude and adjusted association was evaluated with mortality at 30, 180 and 365 days using COX proportional hazards models. Results: Of 9,770 enrolled patients with a mean age of 79 years, 51% were men, 6,305 (64.53%) were independent, 2,340 (24%) had mild-moderate dependence, and 1,125 (11.5%) severe-total dependence. The number of deaths at 30 days in these three groups was 500 (7.9%), 521 (22.3%) and 378 (33.6%), respectively; at 180 days it was 757 (12%), 725 (30.9%) and 526 (46.8%); and at 365 days 954 (15.1%), 891 (38.1%) and 611 (54.3%). In relation to independent patients, the adjusted risks (hazard ratio) of dying within 30 days associated with mild-moderate and severe-total dependency were 1.91 (95% CI: 1.66-2.19) and 2.51. (2.11-2.98); at 180 days they were 1.88 (1.68-2.11) and 2.64 (2.28-3.05); and at 365 days they were 1.82 (1.64-2.02) and 2.47 (2.17-2.82). This negative impact of...(AU)

Public health and health management in the framework of "Internet+" development trends and challenges: implications for athlete patients

Public health service is an inherent requirement to promote comprehensive development and is a standard for economic and social development. The Chinese Office of the State Office announced the "proposal to promote the sustainable development of the Internet technology medical health" "medical health application of Internet technology is beneficial to the intelligent management capabilities of medical and health care, enhance resource allocation, independent innovation services, reduce service efficiency, reduce the cost of service fees, to meet the growing number of the general public medical and health requirements. In the new socialist era, medical and health care has become the most important concern for social development and people, and "health for all" has become a strategy. In China's medical system reform for more than 40 years, the introduction of big data technology has also brought new changes to the medical field, which is expected to deal with the problem of "difficult and expensive medical care" and improve the allocation of medical resources, and the development of information technology is the trend of the whole industry. The paper focuses on the development of public health management methods and challenges within the framework of "Internet technology". (AU)

The effects of cash transfers on adult and child mortality in low- and middle-income countries.

Poverty is an important social determinant of health that is associated with increased risk of death1-5. Cash transfer programmes provide non-contributory monetary transfers to individuals or households, with or without behavioural conditions such as children's school attendance6,7. Over recent decades, cash transfer programmes have emerged as central components of poverty reduction strategies of many governments in low- and middle-income countries6,7. The effects of these programmes on adult and child mortality rates remains an important gap in the literature, however, with existing evidence limited to a few specific conditional cash transfer programmes, primarily in Latin America8-14. Here we evaluated the effects of large-scale, government-led cash transfer programmes on all-cause adult and child mortality using individual-level longitudinal mortality datasets from many low- and middle-income countries. We found that cash transfer programmes were associated with significant reductions in mortality among children under five years of age and women. Secondary heterogeneity analyses suggested similar effects for conditional and unconditional programmes, and larger effects for programmes that covered a larger share of the population and provided larger transfer amounts, and in countries with lower health expenditures, lower baseline life expectancy, and higher perceived regulatory quality. Our findings support the use of anti-poverty programmes such as cash transfers, which many countries have introduced or expanded during the COVID-19 pandemic, to improve population health.

Tendência de mortalidade por doença de Alzheimer no Brasil, 2000 a 2019 / Tendencias de mortalidad por enfermedad de Alzheimer en Brasil, 2000 a 2019 / Trends in mortality from Alzheimer's disease in Brazil, 2000-2019

Objetivo: analisar as tendências das taxas de mortalidade por doença de Alzheimer no Brasil e nas suas macrorregiões, por faixa etária e sexo, no período de 2000 a 2019. Métodos: estudo de séries temporais sobre mortalidade por doença de Alzheimer no Brasil e suas macrorregiões por faixa etária e sexo; os dados foram extraídos do Sistema de Informação sobre Mortalidade (SIM); o modelo de Prais-Winsten foi utilizado para análise das tendências. Resultados: houve 211.658 óbitos no período analisado, com tendência crescente na mortalidade por doença de Alzheimer no país em idosos de 60-69 anos (VPA = 4,3; IC95% 2,9;5,9), 70-79 anos (VPA = 8,1; IC95% 4,8;11,5) e ≥ 80 anos (VPA = 11,3; IC95% 8,1;14,6), e em todas as macrorregiões, faixas etárias e sexo. Conclusão: o Brasil e todas as suas macrorregiões apresentaram tendência crescente nas taxas de mortalidade por doença de Alzheimer, seguindo a tendência mundial.

Objective: to analyze trends in mortality rates due to Alzheimer's disease in Brazil and its macro-regions by age and sex, from 2000 to 2019. Methods: this was a time-series study on mortality from Alzheimer's disease in Brazil and its macro-regions by age and sex; data were obtained from the Mortality Information System; a Prais-Winsten model was used to analyze trends. Results: there were 211,658 deaths in the period analyzed, with an increasing trend in Alzheimer's disease mortality in Brazil in elderly people aged 60-69 years (APC = 4.3; 95%CI 2.9;5.9), 70-79 years (APC = 8.1; 95%CI 4.8;11.5) and ≥ 80 years (APC = 11.3; 95%CI 8.1;14.6) and in all macro-regions, age groups and sexes. Conclusion: Brazil and all its macro-regions showed a rising trend in Alzheimer's disease mortality rates, following the global trend.

Objetivo: analizar las tendencias en las tasas de mortalidad por enfermedad de Alzheimer en Brasil y sus macrorregiones por grupo de edad y sexo, de 2000 a 2019. Métodos: estudio de series temporales de mortalidad por enfermedad de Alzheimer en Brasil y sus macrorregiones por grupo de edad y sexo; los datos se obtuvieron del Sistema de Información sobre Mortalidad del Ministerio de Salud de Brasil; se utilizó el modelo Prais-Winsten para analizar tendencias. Resultados: hubo 211.658 óbitos, con tendencia creciente en la mortalidad por enfermedad de Alzheimer en el país, en adultos mayores de 60-69 años (VPA = 4,3; IC95% 2,9;5,9), 70-79 años (VPA = 8,1; IC95%: 4,8;11,5) y ≥ 80 años (VPA = 11,3; IC95% 8,1;14,6) y en todas las macrorregiones, grupos de edad y sexo. Conclusión: Brasil y todas sus macrorregiones mostraron una tendencia creciente en las tasas de mortalidad por enfermedad de Alzheimer siguiendo la tendencia mundial.